Limits to Growth Update 2021 - Crash Possibility by 2040
July 17, 2021 at 07:06PM Updates to Limits to Growth (1972)--Comparing the World3 model with empirical data, RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS, Gaya Herrington, KPMG LLP, Los Angeles, California, Journal of Industrial Ecology 2020;1–13. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jiec © 2020 by Yale University 1
Abstract. In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, vary- ing model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical-data com- parisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data avail- ability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity’s goal in the twenty-first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines in these variables, but only one—where declines are caused by pollution— depicts a collapse.
